2025 Men’s NCAA Championship by the Numbers
For detailed recaps and lists of individual even winners
Podcasts - Neutral Deductions, Grace’s Space
Media Reports - Gymnastics Now, GGA
Ian Gunther Instagram on Juda’s foot
How it went down by the numbers
Not unexpectedly, Nebraska takes the lead early as they are starting on vault, which is a high-scoring event in general and a good event for Nebraska. Michigan is a strong second with their usual great parallel bars, Stanford third (starting on high bar, where they scored well, but a 55+ on that event is a major ask), Penn State in fourth with its usual performance on still rings, Oklahoma in trouble early with a fall from pommel star Ignacio Yockers, Ilinois with a rough start on floor.
Michigan brings on its Olympian high bar team to take the lead away from Nebraska, which falls to third after parallel bars. Stanford stays strong on floor, topped by an event-winning routine by Asher Hong, Penn State picks up some ground to move to fourth after vault, Oklahoma closes the gap between itself and the leader a bit with a good performance on still rings, Illinois not making up the ground it could have on pommels to stay in sixth.
This is likely the rotation that decided the outcome of the meet. Michigan pulls away from the field with a 56 + floor rotation, Oklahoma moves up to second after vault, Nebraska in third, big trouble for Stanford as they drop to fourth with falls on pommels and the lowest team total execution score in the finals, putting them over 4 points behind leader Michigan, Penn State in fifth, Illinois in sixth. At this point it’s a four horse race.
Michigan comes back to the field a bit after having trouble on pommel horse, Oklahoma now less than a point behind after rallying with a season high parallel bars rotation, Stanford passes Nebraska with the help of an event winning score by Asher Hong. Nebraska did well on FX to stay in fourth but not enough to beat out Stanford’s rings, Penn State struggles on HB, allowing Illinois to almost catch them after vault.
Stanford pulls into the lead after vault, with a huge 57+ score, and Michigan keeps pace with close to a season high on still rings, Oklahoma back to third after high bar, no major errors but a difficult event on which to make up ground, Nebraska fourth after pommel horse, followed by Penn State and Illinois.
Down to the wire, Michigan ends on vault, the highest scoring event in men’s gymnastics. Stanford is on parallel bars, where they are capable of crushing the opposition, but it wasn’t enough. Oklahoma had a little trouble on floor, still gets a good score, but Michigan and Stanford get further ahead with great performances on their final events, but Michigan just edges out Stanford on the final routine.
The Final Analysis
Michigan won this meet with execution. There was some controversy about where this meet actually ended. As most people reading this are aware, Paul Juda landed his vault right on the line, but one heel went out when he clicked his heels together after landing. I’ve posted links to two podcasts and to Ian Gunther’s Instagram post so people can listen to both sides. Juda’s vault was the last thing that happened, but mathematically it isn’t more or less important than any other routine that occurred during that meet.
Even More Numbers!
Based on the execution Michigan had on the day, what total E scores would the other teams have needed to beat Michigan with the D scores they competed? Stanford missed by 0.21. The highest regular season total E score for Oklahoma was 213.3 and for Nebraska was 216.4. The required E scores were not out of reach of those teams, but were unlikely. This only applies to the competition that actually happened. If we were to rerun the tape of history, Michigan may have had a few more deductions, another team a few less, and the results might have been different.
Both Michigan and Stanford improved their regular-season execution, while the other teams' was not significantly different. Michigan may have had some “home gym advantage.” This exists in all sports. One reason is possibly crowd support: “Physiologically athletes feed off the energy and emotions that come from the fans and supporting sections at big games. From this comes increased adrenaline that improves team performance.” The Wolverines brought out the fans and those fans were loud. In other sports (the so called “objective sports) there may be subtle official bias in favor of the home team, although this has NOT been studied for gymnastics and I’m not implying anything about the judges at this particular meet. It is a topic worth further study. The NCAA Championship brings in the top judges. In this competition, Michigan had some of its best execution of the year, but so did Stanford. As discussed in the podcasts linked above and by Ian Gunther, technology may mitigate some of this. An excellent article on this topic is here.
Next year in Illinois!
BE THERE!