Day 1 2026 US Nationals by the numbers
AI baloney by Nano Banana
“It ain’t over till it’s over” - Yogi Berra
But it is half over, and right now, this is where the US World Team situation is trending.
There are four core members: Frederick Richard, Danila Leykin, Shane Wiskus, Cooper Kim, and either Patty Hoopes or Asher Cohen.
The current top 3 men in the USAG points program are Danila Leykin, and Frederick Richard.
Note the gap from the first to the fifth team with FIG scoring is 0.25 points. They are, for all practical purposes, identical.
Using the US selection criteria, I generated the following scenarios. The caveat is I don’t know what code USAG is actually using.
Fun fact - the highest high bar difficulty Cooper Kim competed last year was 5.3. Day 1 of Nationals he did 6.1.
Sorry about the ugly graphics. It’s 2 AM.
Based on these results, the selection will almost certainly go to the committee. Josh Karnes shows up in all of the D-only teams, but none of the teams that are based on full scores. Who is on the D-only team is less likely to change, so Karnes will almost certainly remain on that. Unless he gets himself into the top teams in the other two scenarios, the three will not match.
What do the other contenders have to do to make their case? Take a look at where they counted in the scenarios as opposed to what they would have counted on had they hit certain routines. If it matches, they need to hold the line.
Nelson - needs to hit floor.
Hoopes and Nedoroscik - hit again.
Asher Cohen - hit SR again and maintain on his other events. One advantage Cohen has over the pommel specialists is he can do 4 events if he absolutely has to.
Yul Moldauer - hit pommels. Rings is helping him, he needs to keep it up. Not fall off the HB in case there is some team configuration where he is third up in team finals.
Kuebler - stay steady on rings. Hit high bar.
Burkhart - hit HB, try a 5.4 vault if he thinks it could work out.
Karnes - hit his routines
Walker - he only does 3 events, probably not much.
Iwai - do better on PB and HB
Nelson, Moldauer, and Kuebler had falls or major errors on their key events, so they have room to improve.
The people towards the end of the list will probably need some help from the others.